Summary of Superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, written by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, is a book that examines the science of forecasting and how to use it to make better predictions. The book looks at the science of prediction, including techniques such as Bayesian updating and the use of structured data to make better predictions. It also looks at the history of forecasting, both in the public and private sectors, and provides insight into how to use the science of prediction to improve decision-making. The authors argue that the most effective forecasters are those who combine the "art" of intuition with the "science" of prediction. They provide strategies on how to use data and computing power to make more accurate predictions, as well as how to develop the mental models and cognitive skills necessary to be a successful forecaster. Superforecasting also looks at the implications of forecasting in a variety of contexts, including politics, economics, and the military. The book is intended to provide readers with the tools and techniques needed to become better forecasters.