Superforecasters are not necessarily experts in a particular field from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasters are not necessarily experts in a particular field, which may seem counterintuitive at first. After all, when it comes to making predictions about complex issues, one would assume that experts with years of experience in a specific domain would have the upper hand. However, this assumption is often proven wrong in practice.
The fact is that expertise can sometimes be a double-edged sword when it comes to forecasting. While experts may possess deep knowledge and insights in their field, they also tend to be overconfident in their predictions. This overconfidence can lead experts to overlook crucial information or dismiss alternative viewpoints that may challenge their beliefs.
On the other hand, superforecasters, who are individuals with exceptional predictive abilities, approach forecasting with a different mindset. They are open-minded, curious, and willing to consider a wide range of perspe...
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