Market timing is a losing strategy from "summary" of Common Sense on Mutual Funds by John C. Bogle
The strategy of market timing, attempting to predict the future direction of the stock market, is a popular but ultimately futile endeavor. It is based on the belief that investors can accurately forecast market movements and profit from them by buying and selling securities at the right time. However, the reality is that the financial markets are highly unpredictable, and attempting to time them consistently is a risky and speculative activity. Market timing requires investors to make two accurate decisions: when to get out of the market and when to get back in. Even the most seasoned professionals struggle to make these calls consistently, as they must be right twice - when selling and when buying. The odds are stacked against individual investors who attempt to time the market, as they face competition from institutional investors with more resources and sophisticated tools. Moreover, market timing often leads to emotional decision-making, driven by fear and greed rather than rational analysis. Investors may panic and sell during market downturns, locking in losses, and then miss out on the subsequ...
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